Shutdown could deliver $14B economic hit, budget office warns

NEW YORK (NewsNation) — The federal government shutdown could significantly impact the United States economy by up to $14 billion, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.

Depending on the length of the shutdown — which has stretched into its fourth week, with no end in sight — the office projects it will reduce real gross domestic product growth by up to 2% in the fourth quarter.

Data blackout impacting economic projections

Due to the shutdown, government data has been limited. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will not release the nation’s third-quarter GDP report, a key measurement of the economy’s overall health.

The GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, outpacing the 3.3% forecast in the second quarter. The growth also comes after a 0.6% GDP decrease in the first quarter, revised numbers found.

That GDP hit will be directly related to government workers missing paychecks, consumer spending slowing, the billions of dollars in government contracts that aren’t being paid, and the effect on contractors without government data.

With no new government numbers, it’s difficult to determine how the shutdown is affecting the economy or the job market, even as companies like Amazon, UPS and Target announce plans to lay off tens of thousands of workers.

Data blackout could be ‘catastrophic’: Analyst

From a data perspective, economists warn the U.S. is flying blind and that in the long term, it could be disastrous for the country.

“If the shutdown went another month, I think we’d be sort of in the danger zone in terms of a lack of information,” said Mitch Roschelle, chief strategy officer for private-equity firm Madison Ventures+. “If it went all the way to the end of the calendar year, I think that could be somewhat catastrophic.”

The Congressional Budget Office report follows the Federal Reserve’s announcement Wednesday that it would cut interest rates to the lowest levels in years.

The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4% — the second quarter-point rate cut in as many months.

It marks the first time in modern history the Fed made an interest rate decision without critical government employment data.

The Fed said its December decision could be impacted by the data blackout, triggering a market sell-off on Wednesday.