How Democrats, GOP could end shutdown and save face

Voices in both parties say Democrats and Republicans alike are looking for a deal that would allow them to save face while ending a shutdown that’s causing increasing pain to Americans across the country.

The difficulty is finding a sweet spot that reopens the government and allows both sides to walk away telling their bases — with a straight face — that they won.

There is no obvious solution, and it’s anyone’s guess what the exact compromise will look like. But lawmakers, strategists and other political experts say there are two ingredients crucial to a deal: President Trump and ObamaCare subsidies. 

The enhanced tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have been the central sticking point throughout the month-long shutdown, and both parties have staked out public positions that have, so far, been immovable.

Republicans say they won’t negotiate an extension of the expiring subsidies — the key Democratic demand — before the Democrats help reopen the government. Democrats say they won’t help reopen the government until the Republicans negotiate on health care. Neither side has given an inch in the month since the government shut its doors — and leaders of both sides publicly insist that they won’t.

The way out of the impasse will require a delicate dance, but experts say they have at least a couple options to pursue without either side appearing to cave. 

The first involves a commitment from Trump, who’s been on the sidelines of the debate, to sit down with a select group of Democrats on a specific date to negotiate a deal to extend the ACA subsidies in some form. In return, Democrats would agree to open up the government by supporting the “clean” Republican spending bill that’s been wallowing in the Senate for more than four weeks.

“Everybody will claim victory,” said a Democratic strategist, who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic. 

“Republicans will say, ‘Well, I’m glad they got their senses knocked into them.’ And they’ll be able to claim, ‘We never gave in; we said we would negotiate if they opened up the government,’” the source continued. “We’ll be able to say, ‘We finally got his attention after he’s out in Asia, and he’s going to sit down. He’s going to bring in everybody.’

“As long as the president says yes, I think that would be where everybody saves face.”

Democratic leaders — Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.) and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) — have said they simply don’t trust Trump and the Republicans to make good on any future commitments to prop up the ACA, which the president sought to repeal in his first term. Trump recently slammed the ACA as a “disaster” in a Truth Social post and demanded that Democrats “do something” ahead of a rise in health insurance premium costs. 

But with the shutdown poised to hit millions of low-income people in federal education, nutrition and health care programs — and with flight delays already snarling air travel coast to coast and threatening to get worse — some observers say both sides will have little choice but to move toward the other. 

“I think that’s what everyone privately thinks — that we get a little meltdown and that would be helpful for everybody,” the strategist said. “That would be the off-ramp that everyone can use without taking credit for it — or blame.”

Craig Shirley, presidential historian and Ronald Reagan biographer, said he believes Trump will sit down with Democrats before Thanksgiving, as the holiday season could build up pressure on both parties. 

A second option to break the impasse would involve Republicans promising an up or down vote — not just negotiations — on extending the ACA subsidies in return for Democrats’ help in ending the shutdown. 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) had floated that strategy in the middle of October. Democrats rejected it, saying they wanted a firmer commitment that the ACA reforms demanded by Republicans did not erode patient benefits.

But some are eager to return to that approach as a condition of ending the shutdown — if the promised vote extends to the House and has Trump’s support. 

“Thune said, ‘OK, we’ll guarantee a vote. We can’t guarantee that we’ll win it or lose it.’ Fine,” said Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the former House majority leader.

“Now, they can’t guarantee us a vote just in the Senate,” he added. “They’ve got to guarantee us a vote in the House, as well. Because I think we’ll win both votes.” 

If Republicans renege, Democrats could shutter the government again at the next budget deadline, whenever it arrives.

The expiring ACA subsidies are posing a dilemma for GOP leaders, who are being squeezed between moderate Republican frontliners pushing to extend the benefits — and prevent premiums from skyrocketing next year ahead of the midterms — and conservative ObamaCare critics who want the tax credits to sunset altogether. 

Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have both criticized the ACA subsidies — and ObamaCare more broadly — as inefficient and ineffective. They say they’re willing to address the expiring tax credits only if the law is overhauled. 

“If you look at it objectively, you know that it is subsidizing bad policy,” Johnson said this week. “We’re throwing good money at a bad, broken system, and so it needs real reforms.”

But Democrats see the shutdown as a way to shine light on healthcare, which will emerge as a key issue in the 2026 midterms. And they have reason to believe their message is breaking through.

A survey from the The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that approximately six in ten Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about rising health care costs next year. And a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released Thursday found more Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats.

“I think it’s clear that the Trump administration is trying to make this as painful as possible. This is not about winning politics for us. This is about making sure people can afford their health care and making sure hungry people get food, and that’s what we’re fighting for,” said Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.).

Another potential factor in both parties’ political calculation comes on Tuesday, when voters go to the polls to elect the governors of Virginia and New Jersey and mayor of New York City. Democrats are expected to win all three races, but a wider than expected margin could boost Democrats’ confidence in their shutdown strategy. Conversely, a tighter margin could provide Republicans a fresh line of attack.

Besides ACA subsidies, Democrats have also demanded that there be specific language in a budget bill that requires Trump to spend funds as Congress intended to. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said even if Democrats support a short term stopgap measure to reopen the government, he doesn’t believe his fellow colleagues will sign onto a full year budget unless it “constrains the level of illegality happening.” 

“I’m not going to vote for an immoral, corrupt budget, whether it be a short term budget or a long term budget, that throws millions of people off their health care and helps Trump engage in his ongoing witch hunt operation of my allies. I’m just not going to do it. And again, I think that the bar is different for a short term deal…the longer term budget will be the opportunity for us to put more constraints on his illegality. But I’m interested in far more than a promise or a failed vote,” Murphy said.

After weeks on the sidelines, Trump on Thursday dove into the shutdown debate, but not in the way many GOP lawmakers wanted. Just hours after returning from a long trip to Asia, the president urged Thune and Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster — the 60-vote threshold that the minority Democrats are using to block the Republicans’ stopgap spending bill.

“It is now time for the Republicans to play their ‘TRUMP CARD,’ and go for what is called the Nuclear Option — Get rid of the Filibuster, and get rid of it, NOW!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media company he owns.

The proposal was quickly rejected by a number of Republicans in the Capitol, including Johnson, who warned that it would come back to haunt the GOP whenever Democrats take control of the upper chamber. 

“The filibuster has traditionally been viewed as a very important safeguard,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol. “If the shoe was on the other foot, I don’t think our team would like it.”