Democrats’ confidence in shutdown strategy soars after election sweep

Senate Democrats feel confident after Tuesday’s election that they have the advantage over Republicans in the government shutdown battle and are pointing to President Trump’s statement that Republicans are getting “killed” politically as a big reason to stand their ground.

A bipartisan deal hashed out by centrist Democrats and Republicans on the Senate Appropriations Committee to reopen the government as soon as this week now appears stalled after Democrats won sweeping victories in New Jersey, Virginia and California.

Democratic sources say they do not expect a bipartisan deal to reopen the government to be unveiled this week.

One Democratic senator who requested anonymity said that if a small group of Democrats abandon the broader caucus’s position and vote to reopen the government in return for modest or even paltry concessions from Republicans, it would have a devastating effect on Democratic voters’ morale.

“It would be hugely deflating. When your strategy, when something is working, you don’t stop,” the senator said.

The lawmaker acknowledged that “shutdowns are horrible” but argued “the solution is not to pacify the other side,” especially when Democrats feel they are finally getting strong political traction.

Democrats felt elated by the results of Tuesday’s elections.

They won the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races by 13 and 15 percentage points, respectively.

And they won, by 64 percent support to 36 percent, a California ballot initiative that will allow them to redraw congressional district boundaries and flip as many as five Republican-held House seats.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) said on the Senate floor Tuesday morning that “Democrats won overwhelmingly” and “by more than anyone thought.”

More than anything, Trump’s analysis that Republicans paid a political price for the shutdown is now bolstering the resolve of many Senate Democrats that they need to stand firm until Trump agrees to a major concession on health care.  

Trump argued in a social media post that Republicans “lost” Tuesday’s elections because he wasn’t on the ballot and because of the shutdown.

Trump told Senate Republicans at a breakfast meeting at the White House on Wednesday that the party is getting “killed” politically because of the shutdown and urged them to eliminate the filibuster and reopen the government with a simple-majority vote.

Those remarks have given Democrats renewed confidence that their strategy to keep the government shuttered until Republicans agree to extend health insurance premium subsidies is a political winner.

“Last night [Trump] said that the shutdown is a negative factor for the Republicans. When addressing why he had lost, this is what Trump said: ‘The shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans,’” Schumer said Wednesday.

“The president is right: Americans realize Republicans are responsible for this awful shutdown, now the longest officially in history,” Schumer declared, as the shutdown stretched into its 36th day.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) said the election shows that “the American people are fed up with the high costs of living” and “attacks on health care.”

Schumer and Jeffries sent a letter to Trump on Wednesday demanding once again that the president meet with them to “end” the shutdown and “decisively address” rising health care costs.

Republicans concede they are on the defensive after Tuesday’s election.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she agrees the shutdown has become a political liability for her party because Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress.

“I think it had an impact,” she said when asked if the shutdown hurt GOP candidates.

“People saw the shutdown, recognized Congress makes that decision, and we’re the party in power,” she said.

Other Republicans expressed concerns that the Democratic election results could prolong the shutdown, possibly for weeks.

“I’m worried that this morning I hear a lot of my Democrat colleagues now saying, ‘We think we’re winning. … We think this is great for us,’” said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “It’s not great for anyone in the country.”

Hawley said Republican leaders should consider meeting with Democrats to discuss how to lower health care costs, something he has suggested for several weeks.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) pushed back on Democratic claims that they now have the political initiative in the shutdown fight after Tuesday’s election, pointing out they were favored to win in states that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 election.

But Democrats are seizing on the large margins of victory as significant.

They believe the election results confirm recent polls showing that Trump’s advantage on the economy, the biggest issue heading into the 2026 midterm elections, is rapidly eroding.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a prominent progressive who caucuses with Democrats, warned that if a group of eight to 12 centrist Democrats strike a weak deal with Republicans to reopen the government, it will deflate the Democratic Party’s voter base.

“Last night’s election from coast to coast was a sweeping indictment and condemnation of Trumpism,” Sanders said, arguing that “people understand that right now their health care premiums under the Affordable Care Act are going to double.”

He had a blunt message to centrist Democratic colleagues exploring a deal to reopen the government if promised a vote on extending health insurance premiums.

He said “it will be very, very dispiriting” if centrist Democrats agree to reopen the government without securing a commitment from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and President Trump to do something to rein in rising health insurance premiums.

“All over this country, people are saying, ‘Please, Democrats, you haven’t been strong in the past. Stand tall now,’” Sanders said. “The Democrats now are winning because they are standing with working people.”

“When you cave, you lose,” he warned.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a prominent progressive voice in the caucus, was spotted after a Wednesday meeting of Democratic ranking members, having an animated discussion with retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), a centrist who is leading the negotiations with Republicans to reopen the government.

Warren has told colleagues that a vote to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies without a commitment from the president and House Republicans to take up a Senate-passed bill would be largely meaningless.

“We don’t need a show vote, we need access to health care for millions of Americans who are about to lose it,” she said.

She argued that Tuesday’s election results show “affordability matters to families across this country, and resisting Trump also matters.”

Peters was tight-lipped after the meeting, only telling reporters that centrist Democrats are still trying to reach a deal.

“We’re still talking about things,” he said.